Machine learning application for the prediction of SARS-CoV-2 infection using blood tests and chest radiograph.

Triaging and prioritising patients for RT-PCR test had been essential in the management of COVID-19 in resource-scarce countries. In this study, we applied machine learning (ML) to the task of detection of SARS-CoV-2 infection using basic laboratory markers. We performed the statistical analysis and trained an ML model on a retrospective cohort of 5148 patients from 24 hospitals in Hong Kong to classify COVID-19 and other aetiology of pneumonia. We validated the model on three temporal validation sets from different waves of infection in Hong Kong. For predicting SARS-CoV-2 infection, the ML model achieved high AUCs and specificity but low sensitivity in all three validation sets (AUC: 89.9-95.8%; Sensitivity: 55.5-77.8%; Specificity: 91.5-98.3%). When used in adjunction with radiologist interpretations of chest radiographs, the sensitivity was over 90% while keeping moderate specificity. Our study showed that machine learning model based on readily available laboratory markers could achieve high accuracy in predicting SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Imaging Profile of the COVID-19 Infection: Radiologic Findings and Literature Review.

PURPOSE: To present the findings of 21 coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases from two Chinese centers with CT and chest radiographic findings, as well as follow-up imaging in five cases. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This was a retrospective study in Shenzhen and Hong Kong. Patients with COVID-19 infection were included. A systematic review of the published literature on radiologic features of COVID-19 infection was conducted. RESULTS: The predominant imaging pattern was of ground-glass opacification with occasional consolidation in the peripheries. Pleural effusions and lymphadenopathy were absent in all cases. Patients demonstrated evolution of the ground-glass opacities into consolidation and subsequent resolution of the airspace changes. Ground-glass and consolidative opacities visible on CT are sometimes undetectable on chest radiography, suggesting that CT is a more sensitive imaging modality for investigation. The systematic review identified four other studies confirming the findings of bilateral and peripheral ground glass with or without consolidation as the predominant finding at CT chest examinations. CONCLUSION: Pulmonary manifestation of COVID-19 infection is predominantly characterized by ground-glass opacification with occasional consolidation on CT. Radiographic findings in patients presenting in Shenzhen and Hong Kong are in keeping with four previous publications from other sites.© RSNA, 2020See editorial by Kay and Abbara in this issue.

Development and validation of risk prediction models for COVID-19 positivity in a hospital setting.

OBJECTIVES: To develop: (1) two validated risk prediction models for coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) positivity using readily available parameters in a general hospital setting; (2) nomograms and probabilities to allow clinical utilisation. METHODS: Patients with and without COVID-19 were included from 4 Hong Kong hospitals. The database was randomly split into 2:1: for model development database (n = 895) and validation database (n = 435). Multivariable logistic regression was utilised for model creation and validated with the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) test and calibration plot. Nomograms and probabilities set at 0.1, 0.2, 0.4 and 0.6 were calculated to determine sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV). RESULTS: A total of 1330 patients (mean age 58.2 ± 24.5 years; 50.7% males; 296 COVID-19 positive) were recruited. The first prediction model developed had age, total white blood cell count, chest x-ray appearances and contact history as significant predictors (AUC = 0.911 [CI = 0.880-0.941]). The second model developed has the same variables except contact history (AUC = 0.880 [CI = 0.844-0.916]). Both were externally validated on the H-L test (p = 0.781 and 0.155, respectively) and calibration plot. Models were converted to nomograms. Lower probabilities give higher sensitivity and NPV; higher probabilities give higher specificity and PPV. CONCLUSION: Two simple-to-use validated nomograms were developed with excellent AUCs based on readily available parameters and can be considered for clinical utilisation.